2026 Begins with 3.8% Air Passenger Demand Growth

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for January 2026 global passenger demand with the following highlights:

Global Highlights
- Total demand (RPK): +3.8% year-on-year vs. January 2025
- Total capacity (ASK): +3.5%
- Load factor: 82.0% (record high for January, +0.2 ppt)
- International demand: +5.9% with capacity +5.8%, load factor 82.5%
- Domestic demand: +0.1% with capacity -0.4%, load factor 81.2%

👉 Note: The timing of Lunar New Year (February 2026 vs. January 2025) skewed comparisons, making January 2026 appear weaker than it really was.

Key Takeaways
Africa (+17.9%): The strongest rebound globally, showing rapid recovery momentum.
Latin America & Caribbean (+8.3%): Not only strong demand growth but also the highest load factor (85.3%), meaning airlines are filling seats more efficiently than anywhere else.
Middle East (+7.4%): Balanced expansion, with capacity growth closely matching demand.
Europe (+6.0%): Solid growth, maintaining a healthy load factor of 80.2%.
Asia-Pacific (+1.4%): Modest growth, but the Lunar New Year timing shift explains the softer numbers. Load factor remains high at 83.9%.
North America (+0.8%): Very modest growth, reflecting a more mature market with limited expansion.

Domestic Market Highlights
- Brazil: +10.9% demand, strong performer
- India: +3.4% demand, load factor 87.2% (highest globally)
- China: -3.8% demand, impacted by Lunar New Year timing
- US: -0.7% demand, load factor 78.7%
- Australia: -1.6% demand, weaker performance
- Japan: +0.7% demand, load factor 75.9%

Industry Outlook
Willie Walsh (IATA DG) noted:
- Fundamentals remain strong for 2026, with global seat capacity expected to rise 5.2% by March (fastest since April 2024).
- Average fares are expected to fall in real terms, continuing the trend of affordable air travel.
- Concerns: rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens, and energy transition costs.
- 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999, raising competition concerns.

Overall, January 2026 shows steady global growth, with Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East leading, while Asia-Pacific and North America were more subdued due to seasonal and regional factors.