Aerospace Supply Chain Bottlenecks Continue to Constrain Airlines

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released a detailed analysis highlighting how global aerospace supply chain challenges continue to restrict airline growth.

Current Situation
- Delivery Shortfalls: At least 5,300 aircraft undelivered.
- Order Backlog: Surpassed 17,000 aircraft (≈60% of active fleet), equal to 12 years of current production capacity.
- Fleet Age: Average fleet age now 15.1 years (passenger: 12.8, cargo: 19.6, wide-body: 14.5).
- Stored Aircraft: Over 5,000 aircraft remain in storage despite demand.

Financial Impact (2025 Estimate: USD 11 Billion)
- Excess Fuel Costs: ~USD 4.2B due to older, less efficient aircraft.
- Maintenance Costs: USD 3.1B from aging fleets.
- Engine Leasing Costs: USD 2.6B as engines spend longer in maintenance.
- Inventory Holding Costs: USD 1.4B from stocking spare parts.

Key Constraints
- Engines: Airframe production outpaces engine availability.
- Certification Delays: Timelines extended to 4–5 years for new aircraft.
- Trade Tensions: US–China tariffs on metals/electronics worsen bottlenecks.
- Labor Shortages: Skilled workforce gaps in engine/component manufacturing.
- Fragile Supply Chains: Reliance on limited suppliers increases vulnerability.

Industry Consequences
- Higher leasing costs and reduced scheduling flexibility.
- Slower sustainability gains due to delayed fleet renewal.
- Travelers face higher ticket prices from tight demand/supply conditions.
- Cargo fleet renewal risks hitting hard limits as older aircraft reach end of life.

Suggested Solutions
- Open up aftermarket practices (less OEM dependency).
- Enhance supply chain visibility with better data tools.
- Leverage predictive maintenance and shared platforms.
- Expand repair/parts capacity with advanced manufacturing and alternative sourcing.

This paints a sobering picture: airlines are caught between surging demand and structural supply limits that may not normalize until 2031–2034.