Planned U.S. Border Social Media Changes Could Reduce Visitor Spend By USD $15.7 Billion, According To WTTC

New research from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) warns that proposed changes to the U.S. ESTA programme, requiring wider social media disclosures, could directly reduce international travel demand and materially weaken the U.S. Travel & Tourism economy, with up to 157,000 jobs lost – wiping out the same number usually created in one quarter in the U.S.

Key Findings
- Visitor Spend Impact: Potential reduction of USD $15.7 billion in international visitor spending.
- Job Losses: Up to 157,000 American jobs at risk—equivalent to the number usually created in one quarter in the U.S. economy.
- Arrivals Decline: Estimated 4.7 million fewer international arrivals from ESTA countries in 2026 (a 23.7% drop vs. baseline).
- GDP Losses: Wider Travel & Tourism GDP could shrink by USD $21.5 billion.

Traveller Sentiment
- Awareness: 66% of surveyed travellers are already familiar with the proposed changes.
- Likelihood to Visit:
- 34% say they would be less likely to visit the U.S. if changes are introduced.
- Only 12% say they would be more likely to visit.
- Perception: Many respondents feel the policy would make the U.S. seem less welcoming and less attractive for leisure and business travel.
- Safety: Majority believe the policy would have no impact or reduce their sense of safety.

Competitive Disadvantage
- Compared to other destinations (UK, Japan, Canada, Western Europe), the U.S. policy is seen as significantly more intrusive.
- WTTC warns this could weaken the U.S.’s standing in the global tourism market, which has already lost 11 million visitors between 2019 and 2025.

WTTC’s Position
- Gloria Guevara, President & CEO:
“Security at the U.S. border is vital, but the planned policy changes will damage job creation. Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour will have real economic consequences.”
- WTTC urges policymakers to reassess the policy, stressing that Travel & Tourism is a critical driver of U.S. economic growth and connectivity.

Methodology
- Survey: 4,563 international travellers across nine ESTA-eligible countries (Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, UK).
- Economic Modelling: Conducted with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, assessing arrivals, spend, GDP, and employment under low/high impact scenarios.

This research underscores how border policy changes tied to social media disclosures could ripple across the U.S. economy, affecting jobs, competitiveness, and perceptions of the country as a welcoming destination.