Air Passenger Demand Falls 2.2% in May due to 28.8% year-on-year decrease in Middle Eastern carriers

The latest IATA May 2026 Air Passenger Demand Report shows a mixed picture: overall traffic dipped, but resilience remains across many regions.

Global Overview
- Total demand (RPKs): ↓ 2.2% year-on-year
- Capacity (ASKs): ↓ 2.3%
- Load factor: 83.5% (+0.1 ppt) → a record high for May despite weaker demand

International Markets
- Demand: ↓ 1.6% overall, but excluding Middle East → ↑ 3.1%
- Capacity: ↓ 2.4%
- Load factor: 83.7% (+0.7 ppt)

Regional highlights:
- Europe: ↑ 3.8% demand, strong direct traffic to Asia (+15%)
- Asia-Pacific: ↑ 1.3% demand, but intra-Asia traffic hit by Vietnam’s jet fuel import limits
- North America: ↑ 1.0% demand, steady growth
- Latin America: ↑ 10.5% demand, strong expansion
- Africa: ↑ 8.9% demand, moderate growth
- Middle East: ↓ 28.8% demand, still heavily impacted by the Iran war, though decline eased compared to April

Domestic Markets
- Overall demand: ↓ 3.1%
- China: ↓ 6.2% (higher fares + Dragon Boat Festival timing)
- US: ↓ 1.9%
- India: ↑ 10.1% (strongest domestic growth globally)
- Brazil & Japan: modest increases

IATA Commentary
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted:
> “Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East… That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience.”

He also stressed that while oil prices have dropped, jet fuel costs remain elevated, forcing airlines to test demand resilience with higher fares.

🔎 In short: May 2026 was shaped by Middle East conflict impacts, China/US domestic softness, but Europe, Latin America, Africa, and India showed strong growth. The record-high load factor suggests airlines are managing capacity tightly even in challenging conditions.