PATA Mid-Year Update: The Numbers Behind Asia Pacific's Tourism Growth - China’s Volume, Vietnam’s Velocity

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), in collaboration with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), has released the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update, highlighting the destinations and source markets expected to drive the next phase of tourism growth across the region.

Regional Outlook
- International visitor arrivals (IVAs) across 39 Asia Pacific destinations projected at:
- 714.9 million in 2026
- 758.8 million in 2027
- 789.2 million in 2028
- By 2028, arrivals expected to reach 115.6% of 2019 levels, signaling a move beyond recovery into expansion.

Fastest Growth (2025–2027):
- Vietnam (+31.2%, 27.8M arrivals)
- Macao (+19.4%)
- Japan (+15.8%)
- Hong Kong SAR (+13.9%)
- Türkiye (+12.7%)
- Malaysia (+11.6%)

Mature Growth Phase:
- China (+2.2%, still largest at 157.8M arrivals in 2027)
- Thailand (+5.2%)
- USA (+9.0%)

Strong Recovery by 2028:
- Mongolia (177.8% of 2019 levels)
- Japan, Maldives, Vietnam, Sri Lanka also outperforming pre-pandemic benchmarks.
- Thailand only returns to 2019 levels by 2028.
- USA, Chinese Taipei, Philippines, Myanmar, and several Pacific Islands remain in recovery mode.

Outbound Source Markets
- China: Largest outbound market in 2027, nearly 127M arrivals generated across APAC.
- USA: Second largest, 65.2M arrivals.
- Both expected to grow ~18% from 2025.
- Korea (ROK), Canada, and Mexico also significant contributors.

Challenges Ahead
- Geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility → higher fuel and aviation costs.
- Inflation and rising living costs → pressure on discretionary travel spending.
- Connectivity challenges remain a concern.

Opportunities
- Expanding airline networks and airport developments.
- Improved visa facilitation.
- Strong intra-regional travel demand supporting growth.

Key Voices
- Noor Ahmad Hamid (PATA CEO): “Change is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the new constant.”
- Haiyan Song (PolyU RCDTT Director): Emphasized agility and evidence-based planning for destinations.

This report essentially shows Asia Pacific tourism entering a new growth phase, but with uneven performance across destinations. Vietnam and Mongolia stand out as growth leaders, while China and Thailand face slower trajectories.