Middle East Disruption Impacts Air Cargo Markets, Demand Falls 4.8% in March

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2026 global air cargo markets.

Key Highlights
- Global cargo demand fell 4.8% year-on-year in March 2026 (international operations down 5.5%).
- Capacity dropped 4.7% globally (international down 6.8%).
- The decline was driven mainly by severe disruptions at Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East, plus the seasonal post–Lunar New Year slowdown.

Regional Performance
- Middle East: Demand plunged 54.3%, capacity down 52.4% — the weakest globally.
- Asia-Pacific: Demand grew 5.4%, capacity up 5.0%.
- Africa: Strongest growth, demand up 7.0%, despite capacity falling 4.6%.
- Europe: Demand rose 2.2%, capacity up 4.2%.
- North America: Demand fell 1.2%, capacity down 1.1%.
- Latin America & Caribbean: Demand up 1.8%, capacity up 5.1%.

Trade Lane Trends
- Africa–Asia: +22.6% growth, continuing strong momentum.
- Europe–Asia: +14.2%, marking 37 consecutive months of expansion.
- Intra-Asia: +7.5%, resilient regional trade.
- Middle East-linked corridors: Severe contraction — Europe–Middle East (-57.6%), Middle East–Asia (-58.6%).

Operating Environment
- Industrial production: +3.1% YoY in February (38 months of growth).
- Global goods trade: +8.0% YoY in February.
- Fuel costs: Jet fuel prices surged 106.6% YoY, crude oil up 43.1%, refining margins up 320%.
- Manufacturing sentiment: PMI at 51.4, export orders at 50.1 — both above expansion threshold.

IATA’s View
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized that while short-term disruptions are sharp, underlying demand remains strong, supported by positive trade and GDP projections. However, fuel supply and pricing are expected to test resilience in the coming months.