Boeing Forecast: Global Freighter Fleet to Exceed 4,000 Airplanes as Air Cargo Traffic Doubles by 2045
Boeing projects global air cargo traffic will double by 2045.
Air cargo demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.5% annually over the next 20 years.
Key Growth Drivers
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Rising e-commerce volumes.
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Growth in direct-to-consumer shipping.
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Increasing demand for high-tech products and AI-related hardware.
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Diversification of supply chains and evolving global trade routes.
Record Performance in 2025
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Global air cargo traffic reached a record high in 2025, growing nearly 5% year-on-year despite geopolitical and trade-related disruptions.
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According to IATA, more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.
Freighter Fleet Expansion
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The global freighter fleet is expected to increase 67%, from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 aircraft by 2045.
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Dedicated freighters are projected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo volumes.
Aircraft Demand
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Airlines will require 2,930 new and converted freighters over the next two decades.
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55% of deliveries will support traffic growth.
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45% will replace aging and less efficient aircraft.
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Around two-thirds of deliveries will come from passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Asia to Lead Growth
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Trade flows involving Asia are expected to drive the market and account for approximately 60% of global air cargo traffic by 2045.
Changing Market Dynamics
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Airlines operating both passenger aircraft and freighters will remain key industry players.
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Express cargo operators are expected to increase their share of global air cargo traffic to nearly 25% by 2045.
Air Cargo's Strategic Importance
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Air freight transports less than 1% of global trade by volume, but represents approximately one-third of global trade value.
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In 2025, the air cargo industry generated approximately US$170 billion in revenue.
Key Takeaway
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Boeing expects sustained growth in air cargo driven by e-commerce, AI hardware, and shifting supply chains, with the global freighter fleet surpassing 4,000 aircraft by 2045 and Asia remaining the dominant growth market.
