Qantas Group Market Update – April 2026
The Qantas Group is providing an update on its FY26 outlook given the conflict in the Middle East. Fuel Outlook - Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since Qantas’ 1H26 results, with refining margins spiking from US$20 to ~US$120 per barrel. - Estimated fuel costs for 2H26: A$3.1–3.3 billion. - Qantas has hedged ~90% of crude oil exposure but remains vulnerable to refining margin volatility. - Government and suppliers assure fuel supply stability through April and May. Customers, Capacity & Fares - Adjustments made due to Middle East conflict: - Redeployed capacity from US/domestic routes to Paris and Rome to meet strong European demand. - Domestic capacity reduced by ~5 percentage points in 4Q26. - Fare increases implemented. - International RASK (unit revenue) growth expected at 4–6%, double earlier guidance. - Domestic RASK growth forecast at ~5% overall, 6% in 4Q26. Financial Framework - FY26 capital expenditure revised down to ≤A$4.1 billion. - Interim dividend of A$300 million (19.8 cents/share) to be paid 15 April. - Planned A$150 million buyback delayed due to uncertainty. - Net debt expected to sit mid-range of target by 30 June 2026. 👉 In short: Qantas is navigating volatile fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty by shifting capacity to Europe, trimming domestic flights, and delaying its buyback program, while still maintaining dividends and a solid financial position.
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