PATA Outlook: Tourism Growth to 2028 Faces Headwinds from Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) today announces the release of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028, which shows that inbound arrivals to the Asia Pacific region are projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels from 2026 onward, with the baseline reaching 761.2 million by 2028.

Overall Outlook
- Inbound arrivals projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels from 2026 onward.
- Baseline forecast: 761.2 million arrivals by 2028.
- Lower bound scenario: 599.7 million arrivals by 2028 (~88% of 2019 levels).

Key Risks
- Geopolitical tensions and conflicts impacting cross-border mobility.
- Macroeconomic volatility and climate-related disruptions.
- Aviation capacity constraints and evolving visa policies.

Destination & Source Market Trends
- Top destinations through 2028: China, United States, Türkiye.
- Leading source markets: China, Hong Kong SAR, United States, Korea (ROK).
- Strong recovery performers: Mongolia, Japan, Chile, Maldives, Sri Lanka (each >150% of 2019 levels).
- By 2028, 27 of 39 destinations forecasted to surpass pre-pandemic arrival volumes.
- Japan and Hong Kong SAR show notable improvement in rankings post-pandemic.

Strategic Guidance
- Diversify source markets to reduce reliance on single regions.
- Strengthen public–private collaboration for resilience.
- Ground decision-making in real-time data and scenario planning.
- Focus on sustainable, competitive growth amid structural changes in tourism.

Additional Resources
- Full report available via PATA Info Hub or PATA Publications (membership or purchase).
- Complimentary webinar recording: Asia Pacific Tourism Outlook 2026–2028: Growth Under Global Uncertainty (Feb 26, 2026).

This forecast underscores that while demand is rebounding strongly, the next phase of tourism growth will be uneven and scenario-driven, requiring agility and resilience from destinations and operators.